A Conversation with a Mortgage Broker

Seattle may not be the absolute most expensive real estate market, but the prices are increasing at a breathtaking pace.  For each of the past 7 months, Seattle home prices rose at the fastest rate in the nation.  Seattle home values have doubled in the last 5 years, according to a recent article in the Seattle Times.

Last week I wrote about the upside, downside, and danger of rapidly rising home values.  This week, I indulge my curiosity and analyze the factors behind the rising Seattle home values.  As I am not a real estate expert, I interviewed a mortgage broker friend, Keane Ng, who is the branch manager for Cross Country Mortgages (www.keaneloans.com).

Why is the Seattle area experiencing such a rapid rise in home prices?

The answer to this question takes us back to Economics 101 – it’s supply and demand.  According to Keane, the job market and median income fuel the demand, while the inventory (new home starts and months of selling inventory) determine the supply.  King County, and Seattle specifically, has a growing population.  The tech sector has strong job growth and there are a lot of highly paid jobs, which is driving up the median income, leading to more demand.

As you may remember from Econ 101, the price and the quantity demanded have an inverse relationship – as the price increases, the quantity demanded falls.  The increasing home prices do lower demand, but because the jobs are still growing and median income is also still rising, the higher prices are not having a noticeable impact on the demand.  The other factors driving the increasing demand outweigh the dampening effect of the higher prices.  Keane described the factors affecting the real estate market as:

“Jobs and median income are the first main factors, inventory is next, lastly rates tend to be a ‘headwind’ or ‘tailwind’ on whatever the market is doing, speeding up a good market if rates are low and vice versa, slowing down a good market if rates are moving up.”

Is Seattle in a bubble?  How does the current real estate market compare to the mid-2000’s before the Great Recession?

I was especially interested in this question!  Keane responded to this question by House Bubbleinvoking two comparisons.  The first is comparing the cost of renting to the cost of owning.  In 2006-2007, rental costs were decreasing and vacancies were increasing — all while home prices were rising.   The cost of owning in comparison to the cost of renting made renting more and more attractive, and made home ownership harder to justify at the prices of that time.  However, in the current market, the job growth has squeezed the housing market for renting AND owning.  Rental rates have also been rapidly rising (interesting articles about this found on the Seattle Times and Business Insider).

Not only are rents going up, but vacancies are at all-time low.  Keane said:

“Most of my landlord clients currently receive more than double the rent they received in 2006 and 2007 and the time they’re on the market is shorter.”

This indicates that the current rise in housing prices is not out of sync with the general rise in the cost of housing, whether it be renting or owning.

The second interesting comparison is Seattle and San Francisco, both of which have a lot of tech jobs – and we have a lot of people moving to Seattle from San Francisco.  Keane’s comparison of Seattle & San Francisco is as follows:

“Seattle currently operates at 55% the cost of San Francisco for the median home cost.  The same jobs pay approximately 90% the cost of the same job in San Francisco but California has an approximate 10% state income tax that doesn’t exist in WA state, while their sales tax is only 1% different than ours.  Knowing it’s considered more desirable to live in CA if all things are equal, it’s not out of the question that the Seattle area can grow another 40-50%, taking us between 70-90% the cost of the Bay area before we hit a value ceiling.  This is, of course, if we don’t have a major tech bubble or Amazon doesn’t fall on their face with their growth plans.”

 

What could stop the growth in housing prices?

In Keane’s analysis, he mentioned that while the Bay area also is also heavily tech related, the jobs are high paying, and they also have very limited inventory, the Bay area home prices haven’t gone up for over a year. Their incomes have hit the cap of cost and affordability is limited.  Simply put, prices have risen to the point where people won’t be able to afford to buy them if the prices go up much more.  Seattle will likely continue to rise until it has a change in the job market, median income, inventory, or it hits a similar value ceiling.

Advice for potential home buyers?

First, Keane says that people should:

“Pay close attention to real estate by the city, not nationally.  Cities like Cupertino, CA (where Apple is located) didn’t lose more than about 10% of their value before they rebounded and skyrocketed in value when the rest of the country was still in a deep recession.  Compare that to Detroit, where they haven’t begun a strong effort to rebound values since hitting their bottom several years ago.  You can use this link to see how values have varied in different areas in the country:  https://www.zillow.com/home-values/”

For Seattle specifically, Keane says that buyers need to formulate their own opinion of what the market will do.  As far as inventory is concerned, Keane says that King County has operated with less than a month of housing inventory for 2 consecutive years.  The King County demand is 4,000 – 5,000 homes per month, so it will take a lot to fix the inventory problem that is helping fuel prices.  Keane suggests:

“Unless there’s a tech bubble coming, I see rapid price growth in Seattle of 8-15% a year until we reach approximately 80-90% of the Bay area’s value for similar jobs.  A home buyer can almost house door key in lock
exclusively come up with their opinion of Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing and use that as their analysis if they should buy or not.  If they believe Amazon will do well for the next couple of years and Boeing/Microsoft will maintain, they should expect the pressure to continue.  That means they should buy soon.  If they think Amazon is growing at a risky rate and no growth from the other two, you can guess we may have a local value correction.”

Final thoughts for potential home buyers?

From Keane:

“First-time buyers are being squeezed for sure as the median income continues to rise in our area.  More than ever, the assistance of affordable housing programs is needed to assist first time buyers.  Prices are moving faster than most can save which is why IF you believe the market trends will continue, getting in with a reduced down payment is likely a better move than waiting.”

 

Conclusion

First, a big shout out to Keane Ng (www.keaneloans.com) for taking the time to so thoughtfully and thoroughly answer my questions!

The Seattle real estate market is fascinating to me, especially since I bought a home a few years ago.  I am not in the city of Seattle, but rather I live in a smaller suburb.  Prices in my area are increasing as well, especially as folks get priced out of Seattle and must move further north, east or south to find more affordable housing (interesting article on this in the Seattle Times).

My Advice

If you are looking to purchase a home, my advice is to make sure you have a good budget in place and know what you can afford.  Rapidly rising home values can create a sense of urgency to get in now before prices rise more, but it is important to remember that buying a home involves real risk.  If home values fall, and you are unable to sell or refinance, will you be able to afford your mortgage?  Do you have room in your budget to handle increasing property taxes as your home appreciates?  Have you built in saving for maintenance and repairs?  If the answer is yes, then happy shopping and good luck!!  In addition to the rapidly rising prices, most buyers face a bidding war out there.  When I bought my home a few years ago, when I put an offer on a home, I was bidding against 7-14 other people on houses that had only been on the market for a matter of days.  Now, it’s even a crazier market out there!  Best of luck to you!

 

Do you have an opinion on the Seattle real estate market?  Do you have a story about buying or selling your house?  I’d love to hear from you in the comments section.